My writings about baseball, with a strong statistical & machine learning slant.

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Final(!) 2010 IP projections (with injury data)

Unhappy with my incomplete updates for guys starting the year on DL, I got a much more thorough list. From Baseball Prospectus, I got a list of (probable) opening day rosters with DL. I checked all injuries on & put in approximate surgery dates where appropriate:

New projections are down by 1.1 IP per pitcher, which is good! Here is the complete list, sorted by projected 2010 IP. These should be my final projections. Mostly improved, with obvious DL guys updated, but no major pitchers affected. The exception is Cliff Lee, who's down to a 150 IP projection, since he will likely start the season on the DL. The number sounds low, but starting the year on the DL is never a good thing. Here is the full list:

Hoping to have ERA/FIP/VORP projections here soon. Maybe not of the same detail as my IP stuff, but at least something decent before the season starts...

Can't wait for opening day!

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